Daily digest: 2026-04-03

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1. Critical Alerts

• Iran war escalation into infrastructure warfare: Trump’s primetime speech offered no de-escalation, threatening to bomb Iran “back to the stone ages” with 2-3 more weeks of strikes targeting power plants, bridges, and desalination. The B1 Bridge connecting Tehran to Karaj was destroyed in a double-tap strike that hit rescue workers. Oil surged past $112/barrel WTI intraday, with dated Brent hitting $141.37/barrel — highest since 2008. S&P futures erased $550 billion in 25 minutes during the speech. Confidence: HIGH (20+ sources)

• Pentagon purge during active war: Hegseth fired Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, reportedly opposed to a ground invasion of Iran. Two more generals — Hodne (Training Command) and Green (Chaplain Corps) — removed the same day. George replaced by Hegseth’s former personal aide. 26 generals/admirals removed since Hegseth took office. Multiple sources say George was categorically opposed to ground operations. Confidence: HIGH (15+ sources)

• Iran shoots down US fighter jet: Iran claims to have downed a US aircraft over its territory. Debris analysis by multiple OSINT accounts confirms wreckage consistent with an F-15E Strike Eagle, not the initially claimed F-35. CENTCOM denies any aircraft lost. Two crew ejecting visible in footage. Confidence: MEDIUM (debris photos credible, CENTCOM denial creates ambiguity)

• Kuwait refinery struck by Iranian drones: Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery, one of the Gulf’s largest at 346,000 bpd capacity, hit for the second time in 15 days. Multiple operating units caught fire. Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas facility — origin of the UAE’s Hormuz bypass pipeline — suspended operations after falling interception debris caused a fire. The interception worked. The plant still burned. Confidence: HIGH (confirmed by Kuwait Petroleum Corp, Abu Dhabi media office)

• Russia, China, France block UN Hormuz resolution: Bahrain’s draft resolution authorising force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was killed by triple veto. France, a NATO ally with 14 CMA CGM vessels trapped in the Gulf, sided with Beijing and Moscow. This eliminates the legal framework for any multinational naval operation to reopen the strait. Confidence: HIGH (5+ sources)

2. Core Themes

Iran war: no off-ramp visible

• Trump’s address reread his own social media posts with nothing new, per Kobeissi Letter. Market expected de-escalation; got escalation

• CNN intelligence assessment: 50% of Iran’s missile launchers and thousands of drones remain intact. Coastal cruise missiles that keep Hormuz closed “largely untouched”

• IRGC published eight-bridge retaliation list across Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan — including all three bridges connecting Abu Dhabi to the mainland

• Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf ran an X poll asking if he should name “bankers and hedge funds holding Washington’s war policy hostage”

• Polymarket odds of US ground troops entering Iran by April 30 rose from 50% to 63% after Trump’s speech

• Confidence: HIGH

Oil shock cascading through global economy

• European diesel futures topped $200/barrel

• JPMorgan countdown estimates: Asia fuel depletion April 1, Europe April 10, North America April 15

• South Korea telling citizens to “save every drop of fuel”

• India’s textile industry paralysed — 500,000 jobs lost with 90% LPG imports choked at Hormuz

• WTI briefly traded above Brent — historically unusual, suggesting US-specific supply anxiety

• Gas prices in Big Sur, California crossed $12/gallon

• Record $977 million poured into leveraged short oil ETF $SCO before Trump’s speech. Those traders are underwater

• Confidence: HIGH

Trump administration in disarray

• Pam Bondi fired as Attorney General, replaced by Deputy AG Todd Blanche. Reportedly begged Trump not to fire her. Firing linked to dissatisfaction over Epstein case handling

• Tulsi Gabbard reportedly on chopping block. Trump shot down the idea of moving Bondi to replace her

• FBI Director Patel, Army Secretary Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Chavez-DeRemer could be next

• Full list of fired/resigned officials growing rapidly

• Confidence: HIGH

Hormuz toll regime taking shape

• Iran and Oman drafting protocol for “supervised and coordinated” transit — positioning for long-term control

• Ships paying fees in yuan for passage. Clear pattern: only Global South countries granted passage

• Three supertankers slipped through Omani waters bypassing Iran’s checkpoint — proof of concept for a workaround, but only 3 ships vs. the 75-85/day pre-war baseline

• Saudi Arabia rerouting via Yanbu: ~5 million bpd from the Red Sea coast, doubling in 2 weeks

• First French-owned vessel (CMA CGM) passed through Hormuz since the war began. Did they pay in yuan?

• Confidence: HIGH

Turkey dumping gold at historic pace

• Turkey sold 120 tons of gold (~$20B) since the war started, 70 tons last week alone — 6 years of accumulation in 3 weeks — per ZeroHedge

• 15% of entire gold inventory liquidated to defend the lira and fund energy purchases

• The question: who is buying all this gold?

• Confidence: MEDIUM (single source but data-rich)

Private credit cracks widening

• Blue Owl Capital hit with $5.4 billion redemption requests in Q1. Tech-lending fund saw 40.7% withdrawal requests. Marquee $20B fund at 21.9%. Both gated at 5%

• Blue Owl shares fell 7.6% to lowest ever

• Blackstone-led group refused to extend another lifeline to software company Medallia

• JustDario notes credit math “not adding up” — echoes of prior credit cycles

• Confidence: HIGH

Precious metals under pressure but miners holding

• Gold and silver fell after Trump’s speech — gold below $4,700, silver below $73

• Shanghai silver at $79.55 per Silver Santa — premium over spot persists

• COMEX silver showed zero activity on April 1 — zero deposits, zero withdrawals, zero reclassifications

• COMEX gold open interest at 357,136 contracts — lowest in 14+ years per TF Metals

• Silver miners barely down despite oil’s biggest up-day — sellers exhausted, per TheHappyHawaiian

• Silver market deficit five straight years; COMEX stocks fell 32.5Moz in March per Karel Mercx

• Confidence: HIGH

Russia massive strikes on Ukraine

• Over 600 drones reported in latest wave — possibly one of the most massive strikes on Ukrainian territory

• Main targets: logistics, warehouses, train hubs, energy infrastructure, connections between Romania and Ukraine

• Constant drone attack for 48+ hours, over 1,000 drones fired

• Russian forces liberated Boykovo in Zaporizhzhia

• Ukrainian recruitment officer fatally stabbed in Lviv by a man protecting his brother from conscription

• Confidence: HIGH

3. Weak Signals

• Sulfur supply chain crisis: Hormuz carries 45-50% of global seaborne sulfur; sulfur feeds sulfuric acid for copper mining; 20-25% of world copper comes from acid-intensive leaching. Sulfur prices nearly doubled since Feb 28. Nobody tracks it. Per @shanaka86

• Iran threatening AI infrastructure: IRGC released video threatening to strike 1GW Stargate datacenter in UAE, which is hidden on Google Maps. Oracle’s Dubai datacenter reportedly hit

• Morgan Stanley China A-share fund limiting redemptions — another gating signal

• Israel scaling back Lebanon war aims: from Litani River to a 3km buffer zone; Hezbollah disarmament no longer an objective

• Artemis II launched — first crewed lunar mission since 1972. Astronauts filming the Moon’s far side on iPhones. The $1,200 phone works in deep space; the $4.1B rocket doesn’t come back

• Iran cyber breach claim: APT Iran claims 375TB of Lockheed Martin data including F-35 blueprints. Listed on dark web for $598.5M. Unverified

• Seymour Hersh predicts US ground troops in Iran in coming days

• Silver Santa portfolio at 65.1% cash, “started nibbling but not very hungry yet.” Thesis: stagflation like the 70s

4. Noise

• Trump wants NFL to change its name so soccer is the only “football” — peak distraction

• Nike considering legal options after Cramer’s “so far so good” preceded a massive drop — the inverse Cramer meme lives on

• Camilla Araujo quits OnlyFans after $70M — not macro-relevant

• Multiple Easter procession videos from Spain — beautiful but not actionable

• Tiger Woods called Trump from his car crash scene — tabloid territory

• Various emotional reactions to Trump’s speech without substantive analysis

5. Stock Picks

• First Majestic Silver (AG): Jerrit Canyon restart planned for H2 2027, feasibility Q4 2026, current resource 7M oz, expected 125K-200K oz/year production per @DonDurrett. Producer with growth trajectory. Confidence: LOW (single source)

• U.S. Gold Corp (USAU): Feasibility study highlights at $3,250/oz gold (conservative), with additional 500K oz mine expansion upside not included in FS. Aggregate byproduct value also excluded. Tight share structure. Per @DonDurrett. Confidence: LOW (single source)

• NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE): Submitted construction permit application for Kronos microreactor — one of only a handful of advanced reactor developers at CPA stage. Regulatory milestone toward commercial deployment. Confidence: LOW (company announcement)

6. Summary Stats

• Total tweets analyzed: 1417

• Critical alert themes: 5

• Core themes covered: 8

• Stock picks: 3

• Weak signals: 8

• Noise filtered: 6

• Confidence distribution: 7 HIGH, 2 MEDIUM, 4+ LOW