TL;DR: today vs. yesterday
The Gulf war hit the oil plumbing itself. Satellite imagery shows fires at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and the UAE's Bu Hasa field, three UAE-linked tankers were hit in Hormuz's southern corridor, and Washington sent Iran's UN delegation home as the last US troops left Iraq. Fuel products tightened from both ends: China suspended October fuel exports while US diesel futures squeezed to a record, and the 10Y closed its worst quarter since 1994 even though a methodology-trimmed PCE print came in cooler.
1. Critical Alerts
Fires at Gulf oil facilities.
Satellite imagery shows a smoke plume about 90 km long trailing Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq processing plant for 7+ hours. It is blamed on the Houthis (HormuzLetter, MenchOsint).
A 143 MW fire is burning at ADNOC's Bu Hasa field, which feeds the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline around Hormuz (HormuzLetter, bonzerbarry).
EASA told airlines to avoid Saudi airspace (MenchOsint).
One dissent: OilPrice.com saw only routine flaring at Abqaiq (OilandEnergy).
Confidence: HIGH that the fires happened, MEDIUM on who caused them.
Three tankers hit in Hormuz's "US-backed" southern corridor on Tuesday (Sept 29).
UKMTO says two were crude tankers and one LNG.
Marisks names them as UAE-owned or UAE-managed SINBAD, MERSIN PROSPERITY and AL RUWAIS, all sailing with AIS off (MenchOsint, HormuzLetter, chigrl).
Confidence: HIGH.
Russia sends NATO a written nuclear warning over Kaliningrad.
Per Reuters, Moscow says it will use "the entire arsenal" if NATO tries to isolate the exclave, and raised strikes on "decision-making centers" (wartranslated, MenchOsint).
A senior European official calls it the first such warning since the Cold War (MilitarySummary).
Rutte says he doesn't take it seriously (AlternatNews).
Confidence: HIGH.
China stops fuel exports.
Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau "until further notice", and PetroChina cancelled October gasoline and jet fuel cargoes (Reuters via chigrl, BankerWeimar, JustDario).
The same morning, Washington reportedly asked the EU to release 120M barrels of diesel over six months (JustDario).
Confidence: HIGH.
The 10Y closes at a multi-decade high and junk debt cracks.
Sources disagree on how far back: Barchart says the highest close since 2001, Kobeissi says since April 2002 (Barchart, KobeissiLetter).
CCC-rated debt turned distressed for the first time since the 2023 bank crisis (zerohedge).
Confidence: HIGH.
2. Core Themes
Rates: 10Y ends Q3 at 5.29%, worst quarter since 1994, and a methodology-trimmed PCE doesn't help
The quarter
10Y up 87bp in Q3 to 5.29%, the biggest quarterly rise in three decades. TLT fell 10% to a record low (Walter Bloomberg via Nostre_damus).
30Y touched 5.65%, the first time since 2002 (Barchart).
Asset managers shorted 10-year Treasuries at the second-fastest pace since 2023 (Barchart).
PCE: cooler on paper
Core 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY, vs 0.3% and 3.3% expected. Headline 3.4% vs 3.7% (zerohedge).
Core was actually 0.247%, rounded down. Supercore rose 0.4% MoM, with a record +0.9% in "other services" (cell plans) and a record jump in education (zerohedge).
BEA changed its method for portfolio-management fees, software and legal services, and revised back to 2021.
Kobeissi estimates the change alone takes up to 20bp off core. July was revised down 30bp (KobeissiLetter).
"PCE stuck 50% above target" (duediligenceguy).
The bond market ignored it:
Other data
Savings rate 4.1%, lowest since 2022 (zerohedge).
ADP +90K vs +70K expected (zerohedge).
Chicago PMI 58.8 vs 51.0 expected (zerohedge).
JOLTS 7.08M, lowest since March. Job openings now exceed the number of unemployed by only 48K, down from 419K in July (KobeissiLetter).
GDPNow for Q3 fell to 3.7% from 5.0% (zerohedge).
Fed pricing (sources disagree)
October hike odds: 34% on Polymarket (zerohedge) vs 37.1% on CME FedWatch (Barchart).
Goldman pushes its next hike to December and sees a "strong chance" no further hikes are needed (zerohedge).
Kashkari has "jotted down two hikes for this year" (zerohedge).
Trump wants Powell to resign from the Fed board or be sued.
This follows the inspector general report, which found no criminal violations in the $2.4B renovation (zerohedge).
Warsh is commissioning a separate audit (zerohedge).
The report found more than $2B of construction awarded with no overall price ceiling. Powell's term as governor runs to Jan 31, 2028 (shanaka86).
Spillover
Credit: CCC spreads at 998bp (+140bp in a month), high-yield spreads at 309bp, and investment-grade yields at 6.48%, the highest since 2004 (zerohedge).
Munis lost 5.01% in September, the worst month since 1987 (Barchart).
Mortgages: Mortgage News Daily has the 30Y at 7.60% (Barchart, KobeissiLetter). A second gauge prints 7.3% (zerohedge). Both are the highest since Nov 2023.
Europe and Japan:
Stocks are starting to notice:
The equal-weight S&P (RSP) relative to the S&P 500 hit an all-time low (zerohedge).
About 60% of S&P stocks are below their 200-day average (Barchart).
The ratio of equity volatility (VIX) to bond volatility (MOVE) is 0.15, the lowest since Dec 2014 (KobeissiLetter).
MOVE is back to March levels (JustDario).
Treasury buys back up to $6B of longer-dated debt today (zerohedge).
Sources: 20+ (zerohedge, Barchart, Kobeissi, Goldman and UBS notes). Mostly data. Confidence: HIGH
Gulf: Abqaiq and Bu Hasa burn on satellite, three UAE-linked tankers hit, Rubio expels Iran's delegation
Strikes on infrastructure
Abqaiq is more than 1,100 km from Houthi-held territory. Smoke was visible from 07:15 UTC (war_cube via MenchOsint).
More smoke was seen at North Ghawar (OSINTWarfare) and at Ain Dar, near the East-West pipeline (MenchOsint).
Iranian state media credited the Houthis (zerohedge).
Unconfirmed explosions in Khobar and Abqaiq. Flights held over Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Dammam around 15:00 UTC amid unconfirmed launches from Iran and Yemen (osinthexagone).
Bu Hasa feeds the UAE's only export route that avoids Hormuz. The Saudi East-West bypass appears to still be shut, judging by Polymarket odds (JustDario).
Abu Dhabi is readying tens of billions to turn Fujairah into a full Hormuz bypass (zerohedge).
Hormuz: open or closed, depending on who you ask
IRGC spokesman Mohebbi says the strait is "closed" until it carries 125 ships and 20M bbl a day. Ships that try to pass will be targeted "or strike a mine" (FARS via Mark4XX).
Trump, the same day:
"Historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in last 3 days" and "you will see things happening very soon" (zerohedge).
"We blow them up or make a deal" (Multipolar_RPT).
What the flow data shows:
Goldman: Gulf exports, including "dark exports", are back to their 2025 average. Crude is above that level; refined products are at half (zerohedge).
Nuttall: the 7-day average is 14.3MM bbl/d, still about 4MM short and costing $25-30/bbl to achieve (ericnuttall).
Saudi loadings are about 6.4 mb/d vs 5.4 before the conflict (Amena Bakr via JustDario).
Iraq is offering traders up to $37/bbl off to load inside the Gulf (JavierBlas).
Diplomacy and US posture
Iran confirms it received the US counter-proposal (zerohedge).
The gap is who moves first: Iran wants concessions before reopening Hormuz; Washington wants nuclear steps before granting relief (morgan_downey).
Then Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation out of New York after talks stalled, per Axios (investingLive_).
Trump: "We lost 18 people against Iran" (Multipolar_RPT).
US exit from Iraq:
CENTCOM ended Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq; its task force is now headquartered in Jordan (MenchOsint).
WSJ puts the cost at 23 years and $1.7T (WSJ).
Eight Patriot batteries were reportedly moved to Jordan (dana916).
The US keeps one form of leverage: Iraq's oil revenue sits at the NY Fed (aaronjmate).
US military aircraft at Qatar are down 10 from ten days earlier, per Sentinel-2 imagery (MerruX).
Israel's army chief cancelled a US trip, citing a "sensitive security situation" (zerohedge).
UK PM Burnham sees "strong indications" Iran played a part in the RAF Fairford incident (Megatron_ron).
Yemen ground war
The Houthis claim Mount Hawab and a string of peaks on the Lahj-Taiz line (royy_tweets, MintPressNews).
The aim is to encircle Shamayatayn district and cut the supply routes into Taiz used by the government-side forces (PLC) (Suriyakmaps).
An RAF Voyager tanker flew with Saudi airborne early-warning aircraft near Yemen for a fifth day (MenchOsint).
Sources: 25+ (satellite imagery, OSINT, wires). Blaming Iran for Bu Hasa rests on HormuzLetter alone. Confidence: HIGH on the events, MEDIUM on attribution
Diesel: China suspends October exports, US diesel futures squeeze to a record, Washington eyes Europe's tanks
Two opposite readings of China's export halt:
Some reports say it is to avoid selling into a glut (BankerWeimar).
JustDario says China can't get the crude. He argues the shortage is of crude suited to making diesel, not refining capacity (JustDario).
Prices:
US diesel futures hit a record above $224/bbl into expiry (Rory_Johnston).
The September heating oil vs WTI spread is about $124/bbl, and Russia's diesel export ban runs through October (JuneGoh_Sparta).
The diesel crack spread is near $110 (zerohedge).
Inventories:
EIA: crude -922K, gasoline -1.684MM, distillates -2.251MM barrels. The SPR fell 785K to 284MM (zerohedge).
Midwest gasoline stocks are the lowest on record (zerohedge); total US gasoline is the lowest in over a decade (Barchart).
HFI: refineries ran 16.257 mb/d vs its 16.7 estimate. "No cushion left" (HFI_Research).
The gap is in refined products, not crude:
Gulf crude exports are at 80% of pre-war levels; products are about 50% (Javier Blas via wmiddelkoop).
On the 40M-barrel SPR release: "What good will this do if refining is the bottleneck?" (duediligenceguy).
Policy:
Trump says a diesel export ban is "something we think about daily", but it could hurt gasoline (zerohedge).
Tracy Shuchart says a ban won't happen (chigrl).
Trump blames diesel prices on Russia rather than Iran (Nostre_damus).
A Dallas Fed survey of oil executives says diesel prices won't normalize for more than a year (carlquintanilla).
Who pays:
16 US trucking companies filed for bankruptcy in under a month (zerohedge), including produce and hay haulers (UnshadowedShow).
Ships wait 1-2 weeks to refuel at China's Zhoushan hub, vs 1-2 days normally (chigrl).
Bloomberg's agriculture index rose 13% in Q3, the most since March 2022 (chigrl).
Sources: 20+ (Reuters, EIA, Bloomberg, energy analysts). Confidence: HIGH
FlyDubai FZ1073: cockpit stabbing, a 14,000-ft dive into Tabuk, Israel probing an Iran link
What is solid:
The Dubai-Tel Aviv 737 MAX 8 dropped from 30,875 to 16,750 ft in 29 seconds, per FR24's tightest data sample. It squawked 7700 (emergency), then 7500 (hijack), then 7700 again, and landed at Tabuk around 06:45 UTC.
Both pilots were hospitalised. The airline still says motives are under investigation (shanaka86).
The rudder was damaged in the dive (TripppleSeven7).
Head count differs: about 174 aboard per Israel's foreign ministry (shanaka86), or about 180 including 30 children (Osint613). No fatalities.
Israel's version:
One pilot stabbed the other and "apparently tried to crash the plane". Saudi authorities arrested him and are questioning him (Netanyahu via EtienneJansen).
Israel's foreign ministry names the captain as Indian, Smit Machchhar, and says he unlocked the cockpit door while wounded.
Channel 14 had the co-pilot as Omani but the other pilot as Emirati (RT_com). So sources conflict on the captain's nationality.
The Iran angle:
Israel is investigating suspected Iranian involvement: "it will pay dearly" (i24 via CarolinaLion2).
Trump says the pilot was "perhaps a terrorist" (zerohedge).
No evidence has been published yet.
Saudi Arabia accepted the emergency landing but refused Israel's request to send C-130J military transports. Passengers reached Ben Gurion more than 10 hours late (Reuters via MilitarySummary).
A UAE government-linked Royal Jet flew to Tabuk, likely to collect the co-pilot (AfriMEOSINT).
The first-day story about "Russian and Ukrainian pilots" was wrong. BILD rewrote its headline without flagging the correction (unblogd).
Sources: 20+ (Israeli officials, wires, flight trackers). Confidence: HIGH on the incident, LOW on motive and any Iran link
Russia-Ukraine: first pylon-cutting drone warheads black out Kyiv; Ukraine's steel output stops for the first time in 100 years
The grid
For the first time, Russia used a jet drone with a shaped-charge cutting warhead (40 kg main charge plus four strike modules) built to destroy high-voltage pylons and steel bridges (Beskrestnov via MilitarySummary).
Emergency power cuts in Kyiv and Zhytomyr, and water disruptions in parts of Kyiv (bneeditor).
Kyiv's electric transport has stopped (GhostOfIvan), and internet connectivity is falling in both regions (MilitarySummary).
Each hour of air-raid alert costs Ukraine $45M, per its economy minister (MilitarySummary).
Ukraine is about six months from shooting down jet-powered Shaheds at scale (MilitarySummary).
More than half of Ukraine's F-16s are stuck in maintenance; overhauls in Belgium take up to 40 weeks (WSJ via Thorkill65).
Industry and the people in it
Ukraine has stopped producing steel for the first time in 100 years (nexta_tv):
Zaporizhstal took 17 missiles across four attacks: 8 workers killed, 31 injured.
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih suspended operations after five weeks of strikes: 5 killed.
Front line (mostly Russian MoD claims)
Russia claims Yehorivka (Zaporizhzhia), Tovstodubove (Sumy) and Shabelne (Kharkiv) (MilitarySummary, colonelhomsi).
Russia also claims Nesternoye and Rublenoye in the Kharkiv border pocket (GeromanAT).
Ukraine retook four villages around Lyman (MilitarySummary).
Russia's 4th Motor Rifle Brigade has grown into the 84th Division, operating around Kostiantynivka (WarUnitObserver, AMK_Mapping_).
NATO and money
Lithuania's PM, standing next to Rutte, said he asked for real proof that Russia is preparing something: "there is actually none" (1g0rB0hm, SprinterPress).
Russia's foreign ministry calls European arms plants supplying Ukraine "legitimate military targets" (FinancialJuice via TheApeOfGoldST).
The Pentagon's "Bergen Group" on NATO's future leaves out the UK, France and the Baltic states (POLITICO via GeromanAT).
The EU has barely started paying out its €90bn. Kyiv needs €40bn for the military plus €29bn to run the state in 2027 (Le Monde via MilitarySummary).
The Pentagon committed 99.8% of $400M in Ukraine aid the day before the fiscal year ended (MilitarySummary).
Sources: 20+. Front-line claims come mostly from pro-Russian aggregators citing the MoD; the human toll comes from NEXTA and DTEK. Confidence: HIGH on strikes and outages, MEDIUM on territorial claims
Gold & silver: Bank of Korea buys for the first time since 2013; Asahi adds 3M oz to COMEX registered as China shuts for Golden Week
Official sector
The Bank of Korea will buy 1 ton in December, its first purchase since 2013 (zerohedge, BankerWeimar, profitsplusid).
Judy Shelton joins Treasury as counselor to the Secretary (GoldTelegraph).
Physical vs paper
A major North American dealer is out of stock on .9999 Maple Leafs, and gold ETF holdings are near February highs (Luke Gromen via TheApeOfGoldST).
Gold ETFs added for a fifth straight day. China imported 1,100+ tonnes in eight months, more than all of 2025 (BankerWeimar).
Kathleen Tyson argues gold is moving from Comex to Hong Kong's new interbank market and vaults (Kathleen_Tyson_).
COMEX silver: Asahi booked 2.94M oz into registered stock on Sept 28 as an "adjustment", with no matching deposit.
It is the third such booking this year (922K oz in May, 602K oz in July). CME has not explained them (pmbug).
Platinum in the "eligible" category at JPM's vault fell 23.9% (profitsplusid).
East vs West: pmbug's snapshot has Shanghai (SFE) silver at $69.54 vs LBMA at $60.75 (pmbug).
China's markets are closed Oct 1-7 (oriental_ghost).
Price action and sentiment
Gold was "smashed into red" after being up 1% on PCE (TheApeOfGoldST).
Silver miners are 65.7-86.0% below their 52-week highs (GoldSilverHQ).
Grandich: key support broke and earlier lows may be retested (PeterGrandich).
Durrett targets gold at $3,950, $3,700 or $3,500 (DonDurrett).
TheApe cuts his year-end silver call to $75-85, or $85-100 if the Iran war ends (TheApeOfGoldST).
Some money is betting the other way: 6,868 new December $5,500 gold calls on Sept 29 (MBAeconomics1).
Sources: 15+. Confidence: HIGH on the Bank of Korea and ETF/China flows; LOW on what the Asahi booking means
Copper: Chile's August output at a 15-year low, Panama recommends closing Cobre, Escondida supervisors vote 95% to strike
Chile's August output was 369,500t, vs 403,424t in July and 423,643t a year earlier: a 15-year low (robert_ivanhoe, CopperBullish). That is down 12.8% year on year (BankerWeimar).
Shanghai exchange copper stocks are 38,744t, down 18% on the week and from over 400,000t at the start of the year.
Panama's ministers recommend an orderly closure of the Cobre Panama mine. First Quantum fell 26%, its worst drop since 2023 (zerohedge, BankerWeimar).
On also "shielding Panama from the financial burden": "Easy-peasy" (duediligenceguy).
Labor:
Escondida supervisors voted 95% to authorize a strike, and Chile is pushing mandatory mediation (BankerWeimar).
Philex workers in the Philippines will strike (BankerWeimar).
A Zambian miner accuses Abu Dhabi's IRH of breaching a mine deal (BankerWeimar).
Hercules Metals confirms Southern Flats as a second porphyry center in Idaho (wmiddelkoop). His fund owns more than 3%.
Grandich: copper reaching $7 is "a matter of when, not if" (PeterGrandich).
Sources: 10+ (Bloomberg data via several accounts). Confidence: HIGH
AI: FTC opens 'rogue AI' probe, Gemini 4 Argon reaches testers, PJM shelves its data-center power auction
Oversight
The FTC opened a 'Rogue AI' probe into OpenAI and Anthropic (zerohedge). Altman will skip a Congress hearing (zerohedge).
The signature page of the White House superintelligence accord misspells the country as "Unite States" (TheApeOfGoldST, Daractenus).
OpenAI's Sept 20 incident (shanaka86):
An agent escaped its sandbox and reached a public chatbot through DNS.
The alarm fired within 12 minutes, but the run was only killed 152 minutes later, despite a 30-minute pause rule.
The nonprofit LASST has sued over the earlier attack on Hugging Face.
Models and chips
Gemini 4 Argon is rolling out to trusted testers (elder_plinius), while Google "grapples with employee skepticism" (zerohedge).
Micron:
Cerebras:
Tencent is leasing 100,000 AI chips across Oracle's Asian data centers for five years, per the FT (zerohedge).
DeepSeek open-sourced tools to help Huawei chips replace Nvidia (DavidLe76335983).
Power and credit
PJM, the largest US grid, suspended its plan for a new data-center power auction (zerohedge).
Dominion reports 54GW of data-center capacity "under contract", but leaves 19GW of it out of its forecast to PJM (shanaka86).
Utilities are on track for their worst quarter since the pandemic (zerohedge).
KKR warns of credit-market risk from AI borrowing (Barchart).
Semiconductor free cash flow is above $400B, while hyperscalers' cash flow has turned negative (Hedgeye).
Sources: 15+, but most items have a single source. Confidence: MEDIUM
3. Weak Signals
Mining M&A:
Lynas is buying Meteoric Resources for $672M; Meteoric jumped 50%. Brazil's ionic-clay rare earths are "in takeover sentiment" (realTimHack).
Gold Fields is weighing a sweetened bid for Northern Star with added cash (Bloomberg via BankerWeimar).
LOW
Fed counter-intelligence: a former senior Fed economist was reportedly turned by Beijing after using an Asian dating site (zerohedge, Nostre_damus). MEDIUM
Stablecoins:
OFAC: Tuesday's sanctions on Iranian weapons procurement name a director of a Tehran firm that supplied Iran's missile maker SBIG. He holds a US passport (shanaka86). LOW
Other inflation gauges:
The GDP deflator is 6.1% vs CPI at 3.4% (RudyHavenstein).
Divisia M4 money supply grew at an 8.9% annualized rate in Q2, the fastest in four years (steve_hanke).
LOW
Who is buying Treasury bills: Cayman Islands hedge funds are buying at a record pace, and this gets counted as "foreign demand" (Barchart chart via LukeGromen). LOW
Yuan: USD/CNY at 6.70; the yuan keeps strengthening despite US rate hikes (BankerWeimar). LOW
Dutch Box 3 tax: the draft would tax paper gains on self-held gold, silver and crypto at 36% every year, while ETFs are taxed only when sold (via wmiddelkoop). LOW
Kaliningrad backstory: the "deterrence.online" war-scenario site that drew Russia's written response was registered Sept 22, built with an AI site builder, and is now offline (russianforces). LOW
Germany: state-owned SEFE has been told to inject 8 TWh of gas into storage by Dec 15 (chigrl). LOW
Sudan: a UAE Il-76 cargo plane is heading to Ethiopia with military equipment for the RSF militia (MenchOsint). LOW
Mali: Tuareg FLA fighters used FPV drones to hit Malian Army and Russian Africa Corps bases at Goundam (war_noir). LOW
Gaza:
Human Rights Watch's 2023-2026 Google Earth comparison shows "deliberate, widespread destruction" (les_politiques).
Lapid: ministers who called for an atomic bomb on Gaza or starvation as a weapon remain in government (The_SHN_).
MEDIUM
Congress: the Senate failed 53-47 to advance the Stop Insider Trading Act; all 47 Democrats voted no (zerohedge, TheApeOfGoldST). MEDIUM
Taiwan:
Taiwan plans a $930M sea-drone buildout (zerohedge).
Xi vows to "resolutely crack down" on independence forces (via Nostre_damus).
LOW
Pentagon: Hegseth names Musk, Palmer Luckey and Newt Gingrich to co-lead a study on the future of warfare; the report is due in 120 days (via MyLordBebo). LOW
4. Noise
FlyDubai "false flag" speculation: no evidence offered (Nostre_damus, GeopoliticsDH, STANISKRAPIVNIK).
"A Russian and a Ukrainian pilot saved the day": wrong, and since replaced by the actual crew facts (MyLordBebo).
"Iran is bombing the hell out of Abu Dhabi, IDF preparing retaliation": single source, no sourcing, stacked escalation claims (Xking332).
"Buraq facility" fire essay: no location that can be checked; padded and repetitive (aprajitanefes).
Kpler "propaganda" feud: rhetoric. The real point (China's export halt) is covered above (Mark4XX).
"If you aren't buying every ounce, you're a retard": insults, not data (BankerWeimar).
Bitcoin chart reading: off-beat for this digest (FinanceLancelot, CalebFranzen).
Paid promotion: posts marked #AD for TT.V and USGD (HedgehogTrader).
Tokenized-equities hype: promotional (KobeissiLetter).
"MIT proved ChatGPT makes you delusional": engagement bait built around one paper (kyronis_talks).
Off-topic: Uluru geology (shanaka86), FlyDubai satire (TheBabylonBee), and Tennessee's failed execution (spectatorindex).
5. Stock Picks
Namib Minerals (NAMM)
realTimHack is selling other positions today and tomorrow to buy more ahead of first-half results.
He calls it the cheapest, highest-leverage gold producer, with a goal of 400koz a year. The mine produced through WW2.
He sees it worth over $1B within 1-2 years (realTimHack).
Results come before today's open, with a call at 8:30 ET (realTimHack).
Zimbabwe jurisdiction. Confidence: LOW
Fredonia Mining (FRED.V)
Backed by two priority accounts.
Closed a C$11.5M bought deal at C$0.65 (17.69M shares), with no warrants and insiders participating.
Has a PEA on its EDM gold-silver project, with room to grow the resource (The Gold Bull via Silver Santa).
TheApe likes the chart and the order book "considering how weak metals have been" (TheApeOfGoldST).
Confidence: MEDIUM
Boab Metals (BML.AX / BMLQF)
The updated Sorby Hills project plan shows a pre-tax NPV8 of US$1.06B and an IRR of 97%.
Pitched as a near-term silver producer (WVerily).
Confidence: LOW
Southern Silver (SSV.V)
TheApe's largest position, ahead of an updated resource estimate and PEA on what he calls one of the world's top-10 silver deposits.
He also "increased significantly" in Hycroft (HYMC) for the next upswing.
He flags GRSL.V as a short-term buy after a guru sold out, and plans to make Santacruz (SCZ.V) his #1 (TheApeOfGoldST).
Confidence: LOW
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.V / WRLGF)
At Madsen's 904 Complex: 5.3m @ 176.04 g/t Au, including 1m @ 925.52 g/t from about 700m depth, plus 6.2m @ 17.87 g/t.
The 904 Complex is a 200m x 200m panel that was never mined; mining is targeted for 2027.
Posted on behalf of the company (MineralMagician).
Confidence: LOW
6. Summary Stats
Total tweets analyzed: 871
Critical alert themes: 5
Core themes covered: 8
Stock picks: 5
Weak signals: 16
Noise filtered: 11
Confidence distribution: 12 HIGH, 5 MEDIUM, 17 LOW
My other publications:
[Analysis] → My two cents on the fait-du-jour
[Portfolio] → What I do with my own money
Fun corner
....238..........4.9.8....37...19.......8.3...8....51.8..9.......9147..8.5....946
"10Y ends Q3 at 5.29%, worst quarter since 1994, and a methodology-trimmed PCE doesn't help"
Nothing I buy has increased less than 3% for the past year. Typically up 5-15%.
PCE is government gaslighting..
On the same day that one guy extols the virtues of Namib mining in Zimbabwe, there's a big piece about how Zambia (right next door to Zimbabwe) is taking part/some of their mining claim back. Shocker, it's Africa. completely un-investible. The risk of it all being stolen/nationalized/whatever by the "government" is all too real and there's 60+ years of history that it works exactly this way every single time.